If you tailed our home run props last week, congrats! We nailed six plus-money winners in five days, including a 3-0 sweep on Friday to close out the week. It's impossible to follow up that performance, but we'll try our best with a three-pack of HR bets for Monday's MLB slate.
Orioles at Cardinals, 7:45 p.m. ET
One pitcher we're looking to fade on Monday night is Dean Kremer. The Baltimore Orioles starter has already surrendered nine home runs in his first eight starts, and he's giving up the second-highest barrel rate (13.7 percent) among 124 qualified pitchers. Let's roll with Alec Burleson, who's been on fire of late with two home runs, a .455 batting average and a .818 slugging percentage over the last week. The St. Louis Cardinals outfielder is batting .316 and slugging .474 against right-handed pitching this season, and we couldn't ask for a better matchup here.
Tigers at Royals, 7:40 p.m. ET
Bobby Witt Jr. has cracked only five home runs this season and one in his last 27 games, but he's been a bit unlucky in the power department. The Kansas City Royals star has the sixth-highest expected slugging percentage (.604) and the 14th-highest barrel rate (15.6 percent) in MLB among qualified batters. This is a good spot for him to get back on the board with a homer considering he's 4-7 with a triple and a home run against Detroit Tigers starter Reese Olson in his career. The wind is also projected to blow strongly out to left field at Kauffman Stadium, which will only help our cause.
Angels at Astros, 8:10 p.m. ET
This is our favorite long-shot pick for Monday's slate. Jon Singleton has faced Los Angeles Angels starter Reid Detmers twice in his career. Both of those at-bats ended with home runs. Detmers is surrendering a 31.2 percent fly ball rate and a 9.4 percent barrel rate this year, and he's given up five home runs over his last three starts. Singleton clearly loves facing Detmers, so this is worth a shot at +630.
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